With the elections complete, this article gives you my big takeaways and reveals that Sandra Verner is the #VOTEWilsonville Election Prediction winner! Click here to read previous coverage of the 2020 election. Read analysis of the election from Corey Buchanan in the Wilsonville Spokesman.
Big takeaways
Clackamas County moves red, anti-Metro
With Chairman Bernard's defeat in May to conservative Tootie Smith, there was a question about whether Clackamas County would move red. Ken Humbertson, Democrat, versus Mark Shull, Republican, was this election’s battle. Humbertson was up by 9 points on election night, but when all the votes were counted, Shull won by 2 points.
I have a feeling that Shull’s simple message, no taxes or Metro, will be a rallying cry from Clackamas County in regional efforts. Get ready for a contentious battle over issues that involve coordination. With Tootie Smith’s recent comments that Governor Brown’s COVID “freeze” order was akin to slavery (yeesh), it has begun.
Washington County moves blue, impressive wins for Prusak and Neron
Democrat-backed candidates Prusak and Neron (State), Rosenthal (Metro), and Fitzgerald, Akervall, and Linville (Wilsonville) all won. Neron and Prusak narrowly won in 2018 over long-standing Republicans, and impressively increased their margins of victory by +8 and +10 points! With Republicans picking up a few state House District seats along the coast, Democrats were unable to obtain a supermajority to pass bills if (when) the Republicans walkout.
Metro’s failed transportation measure stands out
Thanks to Clackamas County voters defeating a tax to fund services for children who have been abused or neglected (double yeesh), Metro’s failed transportation measure found a friend. In all other ballot matters, voters said yes. The most surprising result was the loss for the Metro measure was in Multnomah County. Joe Cortright has a compelling map showing that low voter support traveled where the SW Corridor light rail, the central project in the measure, was located. Not a good sign.
Joe Cortright’s map overlaying the SW Corridor project and voting precincts.
Women for Wilsonville
City Council will now seat the most females in Wilsonville’s history!
Fitzgerald’s win for Mayor was impressive because her opponent, West, carried a fundraising advantage, Wilsonville Spokesman endorsement, and lots of media responding to the COVID crisis. Backers of the successful May term limits ballot measure were hopeful that this would mean a change from the Knapp status quo. With the defeat of West and Budiao, Wilsonville voters sent a resounding NO.
For City Council, Akervall built upon her name recognition and quality reputation to gain the most votes. Linville’s hard-fought victory over Budiao was quite impressive. Budiao has strong support from conservatives and Linville is relatively new to politics. Haider’s run as a younger professional with business experience was encouraging to see.
Election prediction competition
Winner = Sandra Verner
20 people submitted predictions. There was almost a 7 person tie to force the tiebreaker question - Wilsonville’s percentage vote for Biden - but, Sandra Verner, landed the outright victory by 1 point!
Interesting Results
Although 20 people is a small sample size, it was interesting to see the following:
Biggest upset: only 4 people predicted Shull over Humbertson
Most predicted: unanimous prediction for the cigarette tax increase
Most divided prediction: Metro’s transportation measure had 11 pass and 9 fail predictions
If you want more information on Wilsonville elections, follow #VOTEWilsonville on Twitter. In future elections and election news, I’ll be posting to this tag on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
